Despite progress in several Gulf states in diversifying their economies, the dependence on oil profits among Gulf principalities remains almost absolute, and their political stability is directly linked to the high standard of living enjoyed by their citizens. The public atmosphere emerging in the Gulf states since the unrest in the Arab world began exposed the dissatisfaction of the local population with the growing unemployment and the existing poverty that have been concealed from the public. The decline in oil prices therefore...
The prolonged hospitalization of the current king of Saudi Arabia, 91-year-old Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz, “custodian” of oil and Islamic holy sites, has led to concerns about the continued stability and future policy of this key country. Saudi Arabia will likely have a new king in 2015, and no matter who he is, he will face several significant challenges, both at home and abroad. The Arab world is confronting one of its most difficult hours, and political stability in Saudi Arabia has implications for all Arab states. Until now, oil...
Significant changes have taken place in Iran’s regional standing since the start of the previous decade, largely as a result of the regional upheavals and Iran’s efforts to cope with the new situation. There were three main reasons for these changes. The first is the rise of a new type of terrorist organization with far reaching political and religious pretensions that seeks to promote global jihad – and also threatens Iran and its interests in Iraq and Syria. Al-Qaeda was the first such organization, followed by Islamic State...
Ethnic, political, and religious rifts make Yemen one of the most complex arenas in the Middle East, even more so following the eruption of the Arab Spring, which in November 2011 ended the 33-year regime of President Ali Abdullah Saleh. The disintegration of the delicate political balance Saleh created has brought Yemen to the brink of an abyss with competing elites, ethnic revolts, separatists, external intervention and fundamentalist terrorism threatening to divide the country while hindering the new regime’s attempts to build a...
As the talks between Iran and the P5+1 continue, the INSS Arms Control and Regional Security Program held a simulation exercise to explore possible developments following a “bad nuclear deal” – one that effectively enables Iran to maintain a nuclear breakout capability. The simulation highlighted some possible outcomes that could follow the signing of a “bad” nuclear agreement with Iran, and on this basis recommended several courses of action, including: Israel should act now to close potential loopholes in any prospective deal...
Despite the great interest in the threat posed by the Islamic State organization to the West, perhaps the greatest threat is to Iraq’s neighbors, among them, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states. The Saudi royal family seeks to accelerate the establishment of an international coalition capable of contending effectively with the threat that Islamic State now poses to it and its allies Kuwait and Jordan, which to a great extent serve as a strategic buffer between Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Islamic State’s road to Mecca is primarily...
Qatar’s support for Hamas and the vehement opposition by Israel, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia to the US attempt to let Qatar play a role in the efforts to achieve a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip have stirred the debate about Qatar’s conduct in the regional and international arenas. Through its policies in recent years, particularly its support for Muslim extremists in Syria, Iraq, and Libya, alongside overt support for the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and Hamas in the Gaza Strip, Qatar has unsettled other regional players and threatened...
In the course of Operation Protective Edge, Hamas used several media to disseminate propaganda, including al-Aqsa and al-Jazeera television, websites, Facebook pages, and text messages. These have served as a platform for messages to four target audiences: an internal Palestinian audience, an Arab audience, an international audience, and an Israeli audience. Indeed, the struggle for public opinion plays an important role in efforts by Hamas to mobilize domestic, Arab, and international support for its actions, shape awareness of the...
Operation Protective Edge and the talks that are supposed to end it have brought the political and ideological fault lines in the Middle East into sharp relief. The mediation attempts demonstrate the extent to which the countries involved in the ceasefire negotiations have different political agendas, as well as opposing ideologies and interests. While firmly held ideologies and weighty interests are not an obstacle per se to success in mediation, it seems that they are complicating the efforts of the regional players as they attempt...
