Since the outbreak of the upheaval in Syria in 2011, Russia has supported Bashar al-Assad and provided his regime with advanced equipment. Last week’s reports, including statements by senior Russian officials, indicate that there was indeed a contract for the S-300 system (according to some sources, the deal was for 6 launchers and 144 missiles), and that today Russia is prepared to supply the system. This article surveys the features of the S-300, the reasons for Syria’s current interest in acquiring the system, and the...
The catalyst for the visit earlier this week by Prime Minister Netanyahu to Russia was the significant increase in activity around the Syrian issue, including the attacks against Syrian targets attributed to Israel, high level visits to Russia by leading international figures, and Russia’s announcement of its intention to supply Syria with S-300 missiles. Although details of the meeting were not publicized, it seems that all of the key questions on Syria were debated and some understandings were reached. And while the Russians...
This study surveys Russia’s foreign policy objectives, focusing on its relations with is neighbors and its interests in the Middle East. Russia has been eager to regain at least some of the regional stature enjoyed by the Soviet Union, and has sought to foster ties with different elements across the entire political spectrum, from Israel to moderate Sunni states to the radical axis. Russia’s steadfast support of the Syrian regime is one example of Russia’s drive to use the region to enhance its own strategic...
A series of high level meetings in recent weeks perhaps bespeaks an intention by Russia and the United States to achieve understandings concerning the future of the Syrian regime. While there is no certainty that the parties have already reached final understandings, it appears that the rhetorical tones and the actions on the ground (such as the new decisions by the United States concerning controlled aid to the Syrian opposition, possibly in coordination with Russia) reflect changes in their approach. If Russia and the United States...
Russia is calling its joint naval exercise underway in the eastern basin of the Mediterranean Sea, off the Syrian coast, the largest exercise since the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Vessels from three different naval theaters – the Black Sea, the Baltic Sea, and the North Sea – have reached the region, and the Russian chief of staff himself is commanding the exercise. This essay reviews possible Russian intentions in the Syrian theater.
It was one of the rare weeks since the outbreak of the Arab awakening that went well for Turkey. Between what was seen as a successful visit by Vladimir Putin to Istanbul on December 3, 2012 and NATO’s approval the following day of the deployment of Patriot missiles in Turkey, it seemed as if Turkey was currently playing its cards right. For Turkey, the best scenario is exactly the one that manifested itself that week – a solid base in NATO coupled with good relations with Russia. Whether this is sustainable in the long run is...
After several weeks in which the three state conveners of the Middle East Weapons of Mass Destruction-free zone (WMDFZ) conference failed to reach a joint position on postponement of the conference, the United States, Britain, and Russia issued separate announcements reflecting their different perspectives on the reasons for the delay, and the conditions and timeline for getting the conference on track. This article examines the reasons for the failure to convene the gathering, analyzes who wins and who loses from the postponement,...
INSS held a war game (simulation) focusing on the first 48 hours after an Israeli aerial attack on Iran’s nuclear infrastructures. When the simulation was planned, it appeared that this fall season would be a critical period, and therefore it was decided to examine possible developments subsequent to an Israeli attack. The scenario of an Israeli attack immediately after the US elections does not reflect the position of INSS. Moreover, the sense of an imminent decision has abated somewhat, but after the US and Israeli elections, the...
The upheavals in the Arab world have created a situation that abounds with challenges for Russia, which has found itself sidelined in the Middle East by the Sunni coalition, working – in Russia’s eyes – in concert with the West. From Russia’s point of view, the Middle East has now become a battleground for regional and global powers in their struggle over the future order. This confrontation has grown particularly acute because of the civil war in Syria between the Western-oriented Sunni camp and the Shiite camp, backed by Russia and...
Although in recent weeks the end of the Assad regime has appeared increasingly imminent, Russia has continued to support the regime consistently and uncompromisingly. Together with support from China, this Russian support, evident since the start of the uprising in Syria some eighteen months ago, provides life support for the shaky Assad regime. Sparking friction with the international community, this support ignores the damage it causes to Russia’s relations with the West and with countries in the region that are working to...
As international activity surrounding the Iranian nuclear program intensifies, it seems that the question of a possible war on Iran is taking center stage on Russia’s agenda as well. There is evidence of heightened diplomatic activity, along with military preparations and an expanded public debate reflecting differences of opinion within the Russian establishment.
The Russian presidential election, won – as predicted – by Vladimir Putin, was dramatic, not because of the results, which were known ahead of time, but because of the public protest of recent months that marked the election propaganda and preparations. Manifestations of the protest continued even after the election and may be expected to constitute a permanent feature of the Russian political reality, thereby adding to the host of internal issues that challenge Russian rulers. An additional, perhaps even historic, challenge for the...
