Russia has not (yet) joined the US-led coalition against ISIS, and its official spokespersons have not spared their criticism of the coalition’s management of the struggle. What are the roots of Russia’s policy? The war against ISIS is Russia’s current bargaining chip. Moscow is apparently increasingly aware that it should try to achieve an understanding with the Western powers that will lift the sanctions regime and implement an arrangement in Ukraine – in exchange for Russian participation in the struggle against ISIS. Whether a...
As the talks between Iran and the P5+1 continue, the INSS Arms Control and Regional Security Program held a simulation exercise to explore possible developments following a “bad nuclear deal” – one that effectively enables Iran to maintain a nuclear breakout capability. The simulation highlighted some possible outcomes that could follow the signing of a “bad” nuclear agreement with Iran, and on this basis recommended several courses of action, including: Israel should act now to close potential loopholes in any prospective deal...
On September 5, 2014, a ceasefire agreement to end the fighting in Ukraine was signed in Minsk. Notwithstanding doubts from various directions, the arrangement went into effect, and thus far is holding. Yet what is emerging is that Russia’s achievement in promoting its essential interests in Ukraine’s eastern districts is nothing more than defeat in the war over Ukraine as a whole, which is looking westward – notwithstanding the loss of Crimea and the damage to its status in the separatist districts – and will remain outside the...
Throughout Operation Protective Edge, Russia, in an unusual display of restraint, barely related to the conflict. Moscow’s few comments were carefully weighed, creating the impression that Russia embarked on a mission to promote its image as an unbiased mediator. At the same time, Russia tried cautiously to offer its services to both sides, publicly as well as in private conversations with Israeli and Hamas representatives. Against the background of Russia’s efforts during the Gaza campaign to maintain its image as an impartial...
Over the past eight months of negotiations between Iran and the P5+1, Tehran’s ballistic missile program has been mainly relegated to the sidelines. Yet given the attention devoted to the Iranian ballistic missile threat in the context of US plans for missile defense, it is difficult to comprehend why the US would bypass the threat in the nuclear talks. What could account for the US agreeing to concede the issue, focusing only on the nuclear program for now? Is the US worried that inclusion of the ballistic missile threat would...
Although the official topic of the international security conference held in Moscow on May 20-23, 2014 was Middle East regional security, the conference actually dealt with the Russian perspective on the linkage between the crisis in Ukraine, where elections were held two days after the conference ended, and the upheavals in the Middle East. Regardless of the debate on the validity of this approach, its presentation at the conference should be seen as a message to the West that Russia is considering a change in its policy, by...
What will US-Russia relations look like in the next few years? Where is Russia under President Putin headed? Is a military conflict over the Ukraine crisis a possibility? Are we facing a clash of blocs? Are we on the verge of a new era in international relations, or are we going back to Cold War patterns? What are the interrelations between national interests and global norms? These are just some of the questions asked by those following the Ukraine crisis that are addressed in this article.
According to a number of media reports published in late April 2014, Egypt is soon to sign a large arms deal with Russia for the purchase of 24 MiG-35 fighter jets. If the arms deal is completed, it will represent a significant event in the Middle East strategic picture, another sign of reduced United States involvement in the region. For Russia, this would be a meaningful strategic achievement in its global struggle against the West. For Israel, one or two squadrons of aircraft such as the MiG-29 would not have much tactical...
On April 17, 2014, the foreign ministers of all the parties involved in the Ukrainian crisis – Russia, Ukraine, the US, and the European Union – met in Geneva. The purpose of the meeting was to resolve the escalating crisis in Ukraine, which has evolved into a significant confrontation between the global powers. The meeting, which in effect was a Russian-US dialogue, was described as successful. The significance of the understandings reached is that Ukraine is in effect becoming a neutral country and is under ongoing...
In a series of rather rapid moves, Russia, ignoring international criticism, annexed the Crimean Peninsula. In the immediate background to the annexation are more than three months of violent protests in Ukraine, which ended on February 21, 2014 with a coup and the flight of President Yanukovich, and with the establishment of a transitional government that will be in effect until elections in May. Rather than easing the turmoil in Ukraine, however, Russia’s annexation of Crimea has broadened the crisis, especially given the many...
While President Obama has been challenged on a number of international fronts in the course of his five and a half years in office, the Russian invasion of the Crimean Peninsula presents perhaps the most difficult dilemma. According to his criteria and those of Secretary of State Kerry, this is a clear violation of both international agreements and the status quo in Europe, and challenges the credibility of the United States and NATO.
As the only non-NATO littoral state in the Arctic, Russia’s policies have great relevance for the region’s security environment. A series of military deployments and announced upgrades to infrastructure and weapon systems since 2007 have led to speculations that Moscow seeks to remilitarize its Arctic sector in anticipation of a warmer climate in the region. Using strategy documents and policy pronouncements since 2008 as instruments of analysis, this paper considers Moscow’s security intentions
in a climatically changing Arctic. The...
