At a conference hosted on April 10, 2014 by the Delek Group, a senior partner in the consortium that won the franchise to develop Leviathan, participants were shown a map of the field’s export potential. If this map reflects strategic decisions by the consortium, most of the export targets – Egypt, Jordan, the PA and Turkey – are concentrated in the Mediterranean. All of the export targets in the region, as well as more distant export targets that depend on facilities located in neighboring countries (Turkey as a country that...
President Obama’s September 10, 2014 address to the American nation presented the new US strategy against ISIS. Since being elected president, Obama has been criticized at home and by US allies in Europe and the Middle East for skirting responsibility in various regions of tension. The United States’ mobilization for the struggle against ISIS will thus improve its standing among the moderate pro-American countries of the Middle East, which were fear-stricken by what their leaders regarded as the American retreat and...
The interim deal on Iran’s nuclear program, secured in late November 2013 and implemented from January 20, 2014, was intended to create space for the tough negotiations over a comprehensive deal that would close the Iranian nuclear file. The essays compiled in this volume analyze some of the key issues that have emerged regarding efforts to carve out a “good” nuclear deal with Iran, and highlight additional perspectives that have not been at the heart of the debate. Discussed in this collection are general principles for negotiating...
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s victory in the first round of the presidential election (with 52 percent of the vote) signals the continuing dominance of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) in Turkish politics. Erdogan has controlled Turkey for more than a decade, and is now planning on remaining in office for two presidential terms. During the election campaign, which overlapped with Operation Protective Edge, Erdogan devoted a great deal of attention to the situation in the Gaza Strip, voicing much harsh criticism...
Operation Protective Edge and the talks that are supposed to end it have brought the political and ideological fault lines in the Middle East into sharp relief. The mediation attempts demonstrate the extent to which the countries involved in the ceasefire negotiations have different political agendas, as well as opposing ideologies and interests. While firmly held ideologies and weighty interests are not an obstacle per se to success in mediation, it seems that they are complicating the efforts of the regional players as they attempt...
The abduction of some 80 Turkish citizens in Iraq by Islamic State (IS, formerly known as ISIS) militants and their affiliates symbolizes the major potential dangers of the current turmoil in the Middle East to Turkey’s security, economy, and trade relations, as well as to its regional influence. Turkey would like Iraq to remain a unified state. However, it cannot afford the strengthening of IS in Iraq, since it threatens Turkey’s dominance in northern Iraq. Turkey has gained much from the burgeoning relations with the Kurdish...
In recent weeks there have been increasing reports that Turkey and Israel have progressed in talks on an agreement to resolve the Mavi Marmara crisis. In particular, the two sides have significantly narrowed the gaps on the compensation that Israel will pay. Yet notwithstanding this positive trend, and though it is an important Israeli interest to restore diplomatic relations with Turkey, several concerns about the current timing should be noted. These concerns should not prevent Israel from moving forward, but they are reason to...
Focus in the analytical essays compiled here is on Israel’s strategic environment, particularly the challenges and opportunities that await Israel in 2014. In 2013 the Middle East continued to grapplewith several risk-laden issues and processes that began in previous years, includingthe socio-political unrest in many Arab states and the increased power ofradical Islamic elements in lawless areas near Israel’s borders; the ongoingcivil war in Syria; the unresolved Iranian nuclear issue; and the wide gaps betweenIsrael and the...
Turkey’s efforts of recent years to enhance its influence in the Middle East have been stymied by the upheavals in the Arab world. The lack of regional stability has affected Turkey’s relations with the neighboring countries in the region and complicated its regional situation, both with regard to maintenance of its current standing, and even more so with regard to the expansion of its influence. The events of the Middle East have even impacted on Turkey’s domestic problems. While it is a mistake to make a direct connection...
The disclosure of political corruption ofunprecedented proportions in Turkey’s history has catapulted the country into astate of major political upheaval. So far, the response of Prime Minister RecepTayyip Erdogan has consisted of counterattack and statements attributing theexposé to a network of domestic and international elements interested intoppling his party’s rule. He has even attacked alleged provocations by foreignambassadors in Turkey and threatened to expel them. In practice, however,Turkey’s foreign policy, at least...
