Saudi Arabia’s declared objective, driven in part by sectarian fervor, is to stop Iran’s growing influence in the region. To those in charge of making the necessary adjustments to Saudi Arabia’s security and foreign policy in light of regional developments, Turkey is a key player. From Riyadh’s perspective, Turkey is a Sunni regional power that has not realized its potential because it has failed to adopt a more aggressive policy toward Iran. For Turkey, Russia’s military involvement in Syria and the crisis in Turkish-Russian...
The Islamic State burst onto the Middle East scene as an entity whose conduct and very essence challenge the existing regional order. With its military conquests in Iraq and Syria, its establishment of branches elsewhere in the Middle East and beyond, its state-like governance in the areas under its control, and the cruelty it typically exhibits, the Islamic State has become the focus of regional and international interest and concern. The articles compiled in this volume examine ways of dealing with one of the most salient military,...
The downing of the Russian jet by the Turkish air force on November 24, 2015 sparked a rapid deterioration of relations between the two nations. In fact, the incident has created a new international reality with ramifications for bilateral Turkish-Russian issues, regional dynamics, and the international community. In Russia, which has a long, charged history with Turkey, the downing of the plane was seen as a severe blow to its image in several ways: internationally, in the context of the Syrian crisis, and internally. Russia,...
The confrontation between Turkey and Russia heightens the instability in the Middle East by reducing the possibility of concluding the ongoing crisis in Syria and successfully contending with the Islamic State. Israel can derive a number of tactical and strategic lessons from the confrontation, and in this context, should also underscore that Syria cannot be reunited and the area must be stabilized through a re-demarcation of borders, perhaps within a federative framework. Yet regardless of the solution found, the lesson from the...
The impressive replay in Turkey’s November 1, 2015 elections of the Justice and Development Party’s achievement in the 2011 elections, when the party won almost 50 percent of the votes, reflects the continuing trend of the party’s electoral success, evident since it was founded. The gamble by Erdogan, who undermined the coalition talks following the June 2015 elections and dragged the country into another election round, was successful, and even surprised his supporters. From an internal perspective, along with the advantages of...
There has been much mention in recent weeks of negotiations between Israel and Hamas on a stable long-term agreement. However, it appears that optimistic reports about an imminent agreement between Israel and Hamas are largely the result of the interests of several of the actors related to the contacts between the two sides. For its part, Israel has a strong interest in stabilizing the ceasefire with Hamas. The situation in the Gaza Strip is a time bomb that will ultimately explode, and it is therefore important for Israel to take...
The strikes by the Turkish air force in Syria, which began on July 24, 2015, along with Turkey’s intention to establish a safe zone in northwestern Syria, inspired the headline “Turkey Joins the Coalition against the Islamic State,” even though Turkey has already been a member of this coalition since it was founded in 2014. In addition to the change in Turkish policy, the question arises of Turkey’s long term commitment to the coalition. Another question is whether Turkey is not already giving precedence to the struggle against the...
Despite the difficulty in envisioning the final outcome of the campaign in Syria, and under the assumption that Syria will not return to the situation that existed there prior to the outbreak of the civil war, Israel must prepare for the future. It must update the strategic considerations that until now have driven the current policy of non-intervention. This demands proposing a competing approach to the existing conception, which claims that Iran is the main threat, and identifies the Islamic State as a threat that is more severe...
Many in Turkey and abroad were surprised (and some also quite pleased) to see the setback suffered by the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) in Turkey’s June 7, 2015 parliamentary elections. Relative to other electoral campaigns in Turkey, Israel as an issue did not feature much. This should not be interpreted as a relaxation of tensions between the countries; rather, the added value of emphasizing this issue was seen at this time as limited. While the possibility of the return of the ambassadors to Ankara and Tel Aviv at...
Despite repeated attempts over more than a decade, Turkish leader Erdogan has failed to command a central role for his country in a region beset by religious, ethnic, and economic controversies. In an attempt to win on all fronts he has alienated friends and foes, as well as NATO allies. The majority of these NATO allies are also members of the European Union; Turkey has long aspired to become a member of the EU, and at least as far as formal statements are concerned, Erdogan and the Justice and Development Party share this goal....
The attempt to establish a Sunni pact against the background of the challenges created by the turmoil in the Arab world and the strengthening of Iran’s power in the region is not new. Moreover, Turkey and Saudi Arabia do not have a tradition of good relations in order to forge stronger relations at the current time. There have been some periods in which their relationship has been closer, such as the period between 2005 and the first signs of turmoil in the Arab world, but these were exceptions, not the norm. However, because Riyadh...
