Communications

Iran must now re-evaluate its entire position in the Middle East, says Eldad Shavit from the Tel Aviv think tank Institute for National Security Studies in talks. "Hamas is very weak, but not yet destroyed, and the Hezbollah will be a much weaker organization." Although the Houthi and the pro-Iranian militias in Iraq could shoot Israel with isolated missiles, Iran's strategic...

Eldad Shavit and Chuck Freilich, authors of the INSS analysis, argue that a fresh US military deployment of warships and a squadron of fighter jets, announced on Friday, is “intended to minimise as much as possible” the risk of Iran “landing a blow that would force Israel to respond harshly and put the United States in a dilemma of how to act”. The argument has a clear logic,...

A different, more conventional view is offered by Sima Shine and Eldad Shavit, two former Israeli intelligence officials, now scholars at the Institute for National Security Studies out of Tel Aviv University. They advocate coming to a quick end to the Gaza war, such that Israel, the US, and the West can refocus their energies on Iran – before it breaks out into a nuclear...

“I think that there was an agreement between the USA and Israel: Israel reacts moderately, and in return it gets more freedom of movement in the Gaza Strip from the Americans.” It doesn't work without partners President Joe Biden made it clear very early on that the US would not support a strike against Iran. “Israel cannot wage war against Iran alone,” says Iran expert Eldad...

Was there a growing sense that all other means of response to Iran - such as cyber - were ineffective. On the other hand, Israel's weakness - in Iran's eyes - is the fact that it has been lying in Gaza for six months, continues to fight Hezbollah, is in a situation of displaced populations, the wide protest against Israel at the global level, the internal fissure of society...

“Some believe that the first priority must be the hostages in Gaza and the need to build on this coalition, but I don’t think it is enough,” says Eldad Shavit, a former senior military intelligence officer. “The old formula has changed. Iran, if it reacted, always did so via proxies, but we cannot allow a new formula to take shape. What would be Iran’s assessment if Israel...

“When someone like Richard Haass is joining the progressives Democrats like Bernie Sanders, it is very problematic, I agree,” acknowledged Eldad Shavit, the director of the American program at INSS, Israel’s leading defence and security think tank. “I read somewhere that there 17 senators, Democrat senators, that call on President Biden to condition arms. That’s a lot of...

“The issue of Rafah has become highly sensitive,” said Col. (res.) Eldad Shavit, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies and a former senior intelligence officer. “This is partly because of Netanyahu’s repeated statements on the matter, but also because it is a very problematic issue that involves continued Hamas presence and a porous border with...

“The current administration has been consistent in its support for the two-state solution,” said Col. (res.) Eldad Shavit, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies and a former senior intelligence officer. “But it now sees an opportunity for new regional architecture. This will be a long and complicated process, but the base of this is a settlement of...

A Tel Aviv University think-tank is warning Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s far-right government may now be alienating its most reliable ally. “Despite the understanding that it is clearly in the best interests of the United States to support Israel until its military goals are achieved, Israel must recognise that a significant change in the position of the Biden...