Publications

A Year After Nasrallah’s Elimination: Where Does Hezbollah Stand, and What Are the Implications for Israel?

This policy paper proposes a strategy to translate the IDF’s achievements in the war against Hezbollah—along with the disintegration of the Shiite axis, the collapse of the Assad regime, and the consequences of the war between Israel and Iran—into a new security reality along the border with Lebanon, and to foster better relations with Lebanon’s new leadership. The strategy combines ongoing military action to weaken Hezbollah and prevent its recovery with political and economic measures designed to diminish the organization while simultaneously strengthening Lebanon’s pro-Western leadership. This approach differs from the one recently presented to Lebanon by the US administration, as it considers the constraints of Lebanon’s weak leadership and the necessity of bolstering it in light of the challenge of disarming Hezbollah. It outlines a more realistic timetable and offers Israel greater flexibility, thereby increasing the chances of success—even if progress is slow and gradual—toward establishing a new security reality and improving bilateral relations.

Hezbollah’s avoidance of attacking Israel during its war with Iran highlights the organization’s weakness. What are the challenges Hezbollah is facing—and how should Israel take advantage of the situation?