Publications

The nuclear agreement between Iran and the P5+1, banning Iran from developing nuclear arms and limiting its ability to do so, was generally viewed by the Israeli government and the public as a bad development. Nonetheless, the deal might postpone the realization of the nuclear threat to Israel by ten to fifteen years at least, and therefore can offer a genuine sense of relief as it directly affects the map of Israeli security threats in the coming years. This is not the only area in which there is a significant chance of reducing the overall security threat to Israel. Concurrent with the problematic nature inherent in Islamic radicalization, manifested by the Islamic State and al-Qaeda affiliates, as well as by the ongoing Iranian support of radical elements, the broad picture shows that the regional threat against Israel is actually decreasing; the Arab states have not posed a military threat to Israel for over a generation, while Hezbollah and Hamas, for different reasons, are no longer at their peak. The real complex threat that continues to be troublesome is the conflict with the Palestinians; a recent escalation of security threats – beginning in Jerusalem, and boiling over into the Green Line and now mostly in the West Bank – risks turning into a third intifada.