Strategic Assessment

The Camp David II Summit adjourned without a framework agreement on permanent status and left no firm indication of the future course of Israeli-Palestinian relations. That the parties engaged, for the first time, on highly sensitive issues such as Jerusalem, borders and refugees and diverged from what had been previously perceived as “red lines” suggested that continued diplomatic efforts held out the promise of future convergence. At the same time, the waning political capital of President Bill Clinton and Israeli and Palestinian domestic opposition to suspected or anticipated concessions meant that overcoming the remaining obstacles would be an arduous task. Moreover, the parties were operating under the shadow of a Palestinian commitment to a unilateral declaration of statehood on or after September 13, if a permanent status agreement was not negotiated by then. As a result, there was also a possibility that the parties, whether by choice or loss of control over events, might find their dialogue supplemented, or even replaced, by violence.