Strategic Assessment

This essay aims to analyze the chances for renewing comprehensive and effective negotiations and progressing towards an agreement, by examining the Israeli and Syrian interests and proposing a modus operandi for Israel. The analysis is based on the premise that it is not possible to reach an agreement with Syria without giving up all of the Golan Heights. There are those who believe that just as Syria eventually waived its demand to recover the area of Alexandretta from Turkey, it will also eventually accept the loss of the Golan Heights, or part of it, and that it is possible to reach a peace agreement without conceding the area. According to this view, Israel needs to continue applying pressure on Syria until it agrees. This essay contends, however, that after the precedents of treaties between Israel and Egypt and Jordan, the chance that even in the long term specifically Syria will agree to peace without the return of the conquered territory is very slim. Moreover, even if this might occur at some point in the distant future, Israel should take into account the cost of continuing the status quo over time.