Strategic Assessment

The impression that US achievements in Iraq against al-Qaeda in recent months have direct implications for the al-Qaeda organization as a whole stems from the tendency to overstate the connection between the two. This essay analyzes al-Qaeda Central’s overall strategic balance sheet in its campaign in Iraq over the last five years. It argues that al-Qaeda will continue to boast major achievements in its Iraqi campaign even if it eventually endures a sweeping defeat there. Moreover, even major setbacks will not suffice to undermine al-Qaeda’s strength in its current headquarters on the Pakistan-Afghan border.