Strategic Assessment

Lebanon’s recent parliamentary elections indeed constituted a significant political development and changed the internal balance of power somewhat. Despite the obstacles, the March 14 coalition gained another, largely unexpected, political victory. Election results strengthened the Arab identity of Lebanon and its pre-existing regional and international alliances, and have averted or at least stalled the gradual shifting of Lebanon towards the Iranian-Syrian axis At the same time, the sectarian dynamics of the political system and the fragmented composition of Lebanese society drastically limit the elected government’s political maneuverability and the concrete possibilities for political change.