Strategic Assessment

Recent years, and 2009 in particular, were relatively quiet in terms of Palestinian terrorist activity within Israel. 2009 was the first year in a decade in which Israel did not experience a single suicide bombing. Some senior officials have attributed this comparative calm to Israeli deterrent power,1 especially in the wake of Israel's use of force during the Second Lebanon War (2006) and Operation Cast Lead (December 2008-January 2009). This essay will briefly examine the role and limitations of deterrence in Israeli counterterrorism efforts, while recognizing that determining the effectiveness of deterrence is easier said than done. The available evidence does not allow for definitive conclusions, but suggests that Israeli deterrent success is more modest than is often presumed, and that Israel is not making optimal use of the deterrence-enhancing tools at its disposal.