Strategic Assessment

The main foreign policy issue that has preoccupied Egypt recently has been the war in the Gaza Strip. Egypt’s policy toward the war in particular, and toward Israel in general, should be assessed in light of two central factors: first, the prolonged war and its severe consequences in the Gaza Strip—an area that directly borders Egypt; and second, the war’s contribution to the growing prominence of the Palestinian issue on Egypt’s national agenda, which resonates deeply within Egyptian public opinion. In this sense, this current situation is unprecedented in the 45 years of peace between Egypt and Israel. The war has posed a significant test for Egyptian–Israeli relations. At the same time, Egypt’s leadership has had to consider its domestic political and economic agenda—already burdened with challenges—as it formulated its policy toward both the war and Israel. Understanding these two dimensions—Egypt’s position on the Palestinian issue and its internal challenges—helps explain Egypt’s policy toward Israel and the likely implications for relations between the two countries. The analysis and insights presented in this article are based on official statements, as well as commentary and reporting by Egyptian analysts and journalists during the period under review.

How can victory and decisive defeat be defined – and has Israel achieved them after two years of war in Gaza?

This publication presents the executive summary of the memorandum. The full memorandum will be published soon.