Strategic Assessment
The relatively low number of operations by al-Qaeda and its affiliates against Israel and Jews relative to other fronts is not necessarily indicative of the organization’s planning and posture. Rather, intelligence and security officials around the world were successful in thwarting al-Qaeda efforts, and the power of the organization and its affiliates was limited by a lack of resources. However, the turmoil in the Arab world in the past two years, including in several states bordering Israel, has created a different political-security environment for Israel, which is less stable and more dangerous than what Israel experienced in the preceding three decades. This article draws a picture of the emerging threat on Israel’s borders from al-Qaeda and its affiliates, examines whether the threat has fundamentally changed, and considers how Israel should prepare in face of this threat.