Strategic Assessment
The article refutes the thesis that Israel undertook “nuclear signaling” at the start of the Yom Kippur War. It argues that Israel did not engage in any manipulation by way its nuclear arsenal, and the claim that Israel armed its Jericho ground-to-ground missiles with nuclear warheads is mistaken. It further argues that nuclear signals have significance in times of crisis and that manipulations of nuclear forces are likely to lead to a change in the perception of a rival or friendly country. In addition, the possibility of manipulating the nuclear arsenal without the approval of the ultimate authority is minimal. The article contends that one of the reasons for Israel’s adoption of the policy of ambiguity was that some of the decision makers feared that explicit nuclear deterrence or nuclear signaling would be detrimental to Israel’s strategic and security situation.