Strategic Assessment

The signing of a final agreement on Iran’s nuclear program on the basis of the principles announced in early April 2015 will place Iran in a new situation. The pressure of the sanctions and the threat of a military operation will be lifted, and Iran will receive international recognition as a nuclear threshold nation having the option to break out toward nuclear weapons if and when it chooses to do so – this at a time when the United States already recognizes Iran’s influence in Syria and Iraq and vis-à-vis ISIS. While after an agreement is signed Iran will presumably retain its goal to acquire nuclear weapons, it will likely not hurry to break out to the bomb. Instead it will opt to wait at least until the restrictions on its nuclear program are lifted, ten or fifteen years from now. This will severely damage Israel’s ability to exert economic and military pressure on Iran. Therefore, Israel will have to channel its actions primarily through the United States by generating an understanding with the administration and Congress on the need to take strong steps against Iran should it violate the agreement, and certainly should it attempt to break out toward the bomb.