Strategic Assessment

The Turks are currently in a catch-22 situation vis-à-vis the situation in northern Iraq. There are several impetuses for massive military intervention, but the risks latent in such intervention are many. This essay studies the increased deployment of forces along the Turkey-Iraq border, the concerns regarding an escalation, and the possible ramifications of the various strategic choices facing the Turks. It also considers the impact of the recent elections in Turkey and the widespread support earned by the Justice and Development Party on the likelihood of intervention. Should the Turks become heavily involved militarily in northern Iraq, their goal would be to wipe out the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) fighters who have found refuge there. Beyond the question of whether this objective is achievable, efforts to attain this goal could work against the Turkish opposition to the establishment of an independent Kurdish state.