Strategic Assessment

Especially since 2011, the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan has faced increasing political, security, and economic pressures, due primarily to the massive flight of Syrian refugees and the establishment of the Islamic State (IS) as a military and political entity on the kingdom’s borders. Jordan’s poor economic situation has led to a rise in the threat of Salafist jihad, as unemployed youth have become frustrated and turned to radical Islam as an alternative ideology. The immediate threat that this poses to Jordan’s stability has been defused somewhat by high levels of international aid, the drop in oil prices, and the rise in patriotism and backlash against terrorism that followed the death of Muath al-Kasasbeh, the Jordanian pilot captured and executed by IS. However, unless Jordan’s economic situation improves, the threat of Salafist jihad will outlast today’s low price of oil and the current wave of patriotism. In order to combat this threat, Jordan and its international benefactors must work to address the dearth of water and other resources in Jordan. Regarding these constraints, Israel is a reliable neighbor, although the regime must still repel opposition in parliament to cooperation with Israel.