Strategic Assessment

It is extremely difficult, from so close a vantage point, to analyze and assess the ramifications and consequences of the withdrawal from Lebanon on the internal scene in Israel. Firstly, public opinion is known to be characterized by delayed reaction. The electoral effects of the Yom Kippur War were fully felt only three and half years later in the elections of 1977. Any attempt to gauge public opinion days or even a few weeks after such a momentous event is highly problematic. Secondly, at such an early date, there is a very limited amount of data, and, thus, the empirical basis essential for an intelligent analysis of public opinion trends is, in effect, almost non-existent. This paper should, therefore, be viewed as speculative in nature. Based on past experience and general insights, as well as some social psychological principles, we shall attempt to explore some of the possible short-term and long-term effects of the withdrawal from Lebanon on the Israeli internal scene.