Strategic Assessment

Since President Obama’s announcement in 2011 of plans for a drawdown of US forces in Afghanistan, China has paid increasing attention to Afghanistan. Chinese investment and deepening economic ties encouraged by the One Belt One Road endeavor have heightened Beijing’s concerns about its economic interests in Afghanistan. In addition, beset by increasingly serious terrorism threats, especially from the Uyghur Muslim minority in Xinjiang Province, China is concerned about the political stability of the Taliban government. To secure its interests and prevent the spread of terrorism, China believes it is necessary to keep Afghanistan stable. It actively provides aid and uses international and multilateral channels while playing a constructive but not leading role in Afghanistan, refraining from sending military forces. However, China still faces a dual challenge in Afghanistan, largely out of its “non-intervention”: economically, Chinese projects in Afghanistan lack security protection; politically, China’s limited investment and the low-profile constructive role aggravates the difficulty in achieving a breakthrough in the Afghanistan peace process. In the future, China is unlikely to make any meaningful security commitment to Afghanistan, but is expected to enhance its diplomatic and economic engagement.