Strategic Assessment

The waves of immigration to Jordan since 1948 have not changed the country’s official name or identity, “the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan.” According to the constitution, the King of Jordan has broad governing authority, and the Hashemites – the Bedouin tribes that emigrated from the Arabian Peninsula – retain seniority in government institutions, even though since the mid-20th century they have not represented the majority of the population. The most recent wave of immigration, which began in 2011 following the so-called Arab Spring, has resulted in the presence of some 1.5 million new refugees in Jordan, primarily from Syria. Assuming that many of them will not be able to return to Syria in the foreseeable future, how will their presence – refugees who have never been naturalized – affect Jordan’s political, security, and economic stability? What are the ramifications for Israel of possible consequent changes? If in the future Jordan naturalizes Syrian and perhaps also Iraqi refugees, the Palestinians’ demographic and political clout might be reduced, and this in turn might improve Jordan-Israel relations.