Strategic Assessment

In early January 2012, Iran completed one of the largest naval maneuvers in its history east of the Strait of Hormuz. This maneuver is part of the military preparations and propaganda campaign that includes explicit threats to close the Strait. This essay considers the chances that the Iranian threats will be realized, and contends that the Iranian ability to block the Strait hermetically over an extended period is doubtful. Even were Iran capable of blocking the Strait effectively and for a prolonged period, such a move is contrary to fundamental Iranian interests and is liable to threaten the regime's stability. The essay also explores potential sources for additional oil supply and alternative supply routes as ways to compensate for any damage to the global energy market caused by Iranian provocation.