Strategic Assessment

Intelligence failures on the strategic level are a common occurrence. The most widely known failures take place before a war breaks out, but failures also occur in assessments pertaining to the stability of regimes and peace processes. These failures are rooted in the complexity of the intelligence process and the limitations of human thinking, but the complexity of the strategic environment is also a contributing factor. While failures in strategic assessment can and do occur in all regions of the globe, it appears that in recent decades the Middle East, more than other regions, has seen a high proportion of such failures. The reasons are related to the chief characteristics of the region: the significant changes occurring in the region and the speed at which they occur, the multiple problems with security and violence, the growing weakness of regimes, the new phenomenon of the “Arab Spring,” and the importance of the Iranian issue.