Strategic Assessment

The Iraqi crisis of January/February 1998, appears, in hindsight, to have been a false alarm as far as Israel was concerned. The basic facts did not change either before the crisis or as it unfolded. Iraq’s limited ability to strike Israel with missiles carrying conventional or non-conventional warheads has not improved in recent years, and Israel estimated, before and during the crisis, that the risk that missiles would be fired at Israel from Iraq was low. Unlike in the Gulf War, Iraq’s leaders made it clear this time, publicly and through diplomatic channels, that they had no intention or ability to fire missiles at Israel. In the end, the crisis was resolved with a political settlement; neither a bullet nor a missile was fired.