Strategic Assessment

Assessing the significance of the Iranian threat to Israel has been, until now, relatively simple. The primary danger posed by Iran was in the area of terrorism – comprehensive assistance to the Hizballah in Lebanon and more limited aid to the Islamic Palestinian organizations, Hamas and Islamic Jihad. Iran’s increased strength in conventional weapons did not pose a significant threat to Israel. Iran does not have the conventional military capability to attack Israel, and – except in the area of missiles – evidently will not achieve such capability within the next few years. Iran’s conventional military buildup has also been relatively limited by its financial difficulties. In addition, to date Iran could not threaten Israel with nonconventional weapons, both because Israel was outside the range of Iranian missiles and because Iran’s nuclear weapons program is evidently still far from operational.