Strategic Assessment

Hamas seemed to emerge from the November 2012 confrontation with Israel in a position of relative strength. The terms of the ceasefire and the limited steps Israel undertook in the aftermath of the war to lift some of the restrictions on the Gaza Strip substantiated Hamas’s sense of victory and control. The Gaza-based Palestinian movement also benefitted from regional backing, particularly from Qatar and Egypt, which confirmed the overall perception that Hamas had been able to take advantage of the upheaval generated by the Arab Awakening to improve its regional status. Yet in the following months this trend reversed quickly, propelling Hamas from a position of strength to one of clear fragility. Hamas now finds itself at a crossroads, forced to choose between isolation and integration and between political and military tracks to advance its organizational interests.