Strategic Assessment

Following three and a half years of civil war in Syria, the end of the turmoil is not in sight. Bashar al-Assad has succeeded in surviving, but the establishment of an Islamic caliphate by the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) has helped maintain the bloody standoff, thereby in effect dividing Syria into small sub-states: an ISIS state in eastern Syria and western Iraq, a Baath stronghold under the Assad dynasty in central Syria, and autonomous enclaves of rebel groups fighting against both the Syrian regime and ISIS. Whether Assad manages to defeat his opponents, or whether the rebels are successful, the winner or winners in the struggle are liable to discover that very little is left of Syria – a country that only a few short years ago was regarded as a paragon of stability governed by a strong and invulnerable regime.