Strategic Assessment

The disengagement plan is the focus of public debate in Israel, with attention centered on questions of implementation: will the prime minister overcome the internal political problems and deflect attempts to scuttle the plan? How violent will the reaction of the settlers and their supporters be to the evacuation process? Will there be a significant level of refusal to obey orders in the IDF? Will the disengagement plan be implemented under fire from the Palestinians? These and other related issues are important, but they pale in significance compared with the main question: what will Israel face the day after the disengagement? Will it have embarked on a route to reconcilement with the Palestinians and a solution to – or at least a moderation of ג€“ the decades-long conflict, or not?