Strategic Assessment

The first two years of the Syrian revolution generated momentum that ran entirely against the regime. In recent months, however, it appears that the rebels have encountered a glass ceiling that resists a breakthrough. This is no surprise, given the rebels’ inherent weakness and failure to achieve unity, as well as the fatigue and exhaustion in their ranks and the emerging change in Syrian popular sentiment, which is again coming to regard the regime as the only guarantee of renewed stability and security in the country. As a result of all these factors, experts are increasingly coming to believe that the regime will succeed in surviving the revolution against it, and that Bashar al-Assad will have little difficulty reestablishing his rule throughout the country.