Strategic Assessment

The resilience demonstrated by Saudi Arabia over the last seven tumultuous years does not guarantee its long term stability. Indeed, not only has the risk of an outbreak of political violence not been removed, but due to circumstances and processes underway in the kingdom, the risk is greater than in the past. Furthermore, in recent years, the Middle East has seen seemingly stable regimes collapse with no prior warning signs. Given the far reaching consequences of a collapse of the regime in Riyadh, it is important to consider this potential scenario. This essay does not purport to predict a precise time at which the kingdom might become unstable, or to assess the degree to which instability in Saudi Arabia is inevitable. Rather, it seeks to warn of the possible consequences of this scenario and generate related insights.