Strategic Assessment

Lebanese discourse today resonates in the context of assessments that the international conflict concerning Iran’s nuclear program is liable to lead to a confrontation and undermine stability in the entire region. No less important, however, this discourse occurs in the context of what is emerging as Syria’s return to the Lebanese theater and the subjugation of Lebanon, including Hizbollah, to the Syrian agenda. Syria’s success in restoring its status in Lebanon is likely to bring Hizbollah’s moment of truth nearer, in which it will face a real dilemma. It may be forced to choose between its loyalty to the axis of resistance and its loyalty to Lebanon, and it may confront the need to reduce the risk of being drawn into a regional conflict, as well as perhaps an internal one.