Strategic Assessment

The wave of elections in key European Union states in 2017 invites intensified debates concerning immigration and terrorism. This article discusses data from reliable recent opinion surveys that indicate that 8.3 percent of the inhabitants of the Muslim world hold sympathies of some degree for the Islamic State. A hypothetical electoral majority of 52 percent of the entire Arab world also agrees that “United States interference in the region justifies armed operations against the United States everywhere,” which connotes significant support rates for terrorist groups competing with the Islamic State (al-Qaeda, Hamas, and Hezbollah). However, as there are also large sections of the Arab and Muslim publics that do not support terrorism, it is difficult to draw unequivocal conclusions regarding these publics or to derive a simple formula for refugee or immigration policies from these figures.