Strategic Assessment

This paper analyzes the causes and consequences of a further breakdown of state coherence in Libya, and considers the implications for Israel as it seeks to minimize the risks associated with greater instability in North Africa. Libya’s strategic importance for Israel lies in its potential destabilizing impact on Egypt, its involvement in the regional struggle between Islamist and anti-Islamist factions, and its emergence as a conduit for Russia’s growing regional influence. Israeli policymakers would do well to enhance security and political coordination with Egypt in an effort to fortify Cairo’s defenses against threats emanating from Libya, while quietly urging allies in Washington not to disengage from the Libyan theater and cede additional ground to Russia.