Strategic Assessment

The Russian-Iranian intervention in Syria that began in September 2015 caused an unexpected change of direction in the war that is likely to affect its results. The Russians were able to halt the rebels’ momentum and reconquer territory that had fallen into rebel hands, thereby stabilizing the status of the Syrian regime in the “Little Syria” remaining under its control – a strip of territory stretching north from Damascus to Aleppo and the Alawite coast, the regime’s stronghold, and south to the southern border city of Daraa. While this intervention did not lead to the rebels’ defeat or eliminate the rebellion, it did make Russia an active and significant player in the Syrian theater. Specifically, it enabled Russia to bring about a halt, however temporary, in the fighting, and in cooperation with the United States, spark a political process aimed at bringing about a settlement for ending the war in Syria.