Strategic Assessment

In recent months, governmental crises, revolutionary fervor, and popular protests have spread like wildfire from one Arab state to another. In the midst of the incendiary Middle East, however, the Palestinian Authority (PA) represents an island of relative calm. This phenomenon seems at odds with the gloomy forecasts that regularly affirm the weakness of the current PA government and its limited viability. The contrast is even starker in the wake of the al-Jazeera leaks, which were used by the network and others to fuel virulent attacks on the PA following the exposure of Palestinian documents on the Israeli-Palestinian negotiations and the PA’s relations with the international community. The purpose of this essay is to examine what underlies the relative calm in the Palestinian arena, and to infer relevant conclusions for the Israeli-Palestinian political process.