Strategic Assessment

In the war in Lebanon, Israel finds itself in a new kind of conflict, engaged against a sub-state organization that in some respects has the military might of a state and is able to threaten a large percentage of the civilian population. At the same time, the organization still has the characteristics of a terror and guerilla organization. It benefits from the cover of a civilian population and when it is attacked by a superior force, it scatters and melts into the populated areas to regroup and renew the fighting from among people who live under occupation-like conditions. The war in Lebanon cannot, therefore, end in a military victory in the normal sense, meaning that the enemy loses its will to fight and it becomes possible to dictate a new political reality. Even if Hizbollah loses all military confrontations and the whole of Lebanon is occupied, Hizbollah will continue to operate as an underground organization against the occupying army. It can be assumed that in such a situation, Israel will find itself in a predicament similar to that of the American army in Iraq, but against a better trained and more effective rival.