Strategic Assessment

Reports of forthcoming indictments of Hizbollah members in connection with the 2005 assassination of Rafiq Hariri have sparked significant consequences. Regionally, the political crisis created by the Special Tribunal for Lebanon investigation has increased the influence of Syria and Saudi Arabia on Lebanon, and Lebanon is subject to intense international pressure both from the pro-STL camp (especially the US) and from the supporters of Hizbollah (Syria and Iran). Domestically, tension has grown between the March 14 and the March 8 opposition forces. The article looks at how the expected indictments have been propelled to the center of Lebanese domestic and foreign policy, and it analyzes the regional implications of the current state of affairs.