Strategic Assessment

The second Intifada affected Palestinian politics and public perception of Palestinian-Israeli relations in profound ways. It reduced support for Arafat, the Palestinian Authority (PA), and the mainstream national movement, and increased support for Hamas and other Islamist groups. It also reduced confidence in the peace process and increased support for violence against Israelis. Nonetheless, support for reconciliation, based on a two-state solution, remained high and unchanged despite the siege and bloodshed. These conclusions are based on three surveys conducted among Palestinians during July 2000, July 2001, and December 2001. These surveys were conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research among Palestinians 18 years and older in the West Bank (including Arab East Jerusalem) and the Gaza Strip. The total sample size in each poll averaged more than 1300, the margin of error + 3%, and the non-response rate 3%. Other data cited in this article are taken from similar surveys conducted by the author between 1993 and 2000.