Strategic Assessment

In the two decades following the signing of the 1994 ceasefire agreement, the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the Nagorno-Karabakh region was generally considered frozen. However, since 2014 there has been an increase both in the number and severity of incidents between the sides, and there is serious cause for concern regarding a possible renewed outbreak of hostilities. This deterioration raises the question why to this day the sides have failed to resolve the conflict. Moreover, one could ask why the conflict mediators, primarily the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Minsk Group and its three co-chairs – Russia, the United States, and France – have not yet succeeded in ending the conflict. Beyond a general interest in these specific questions and the lessons for the resolution of other conflicts, Israel has a particular interest in Azerbaijan because the latter is an ally in the struggle against Iran’s drive for regional hegemony.