Strategic Assessment

We are at the last stages of the al-Aqsa Intifada, which has claimed from Israel a toll of over 800 fatalities. Thousands of people were injured, great damage was caused to property, and an extremely severe blow was dealt to the country’s economy. The Palestinians did not succeed in subduing Israel, nor did they succeed in compelling it to withdraw from territories and conduct negotiations under fire. The Palestinians did succeed, however, in imprinting onto Israeli consciousness the understanding that Israel’s extrication from its difficult economic straits and any subsequent economic recovery would not be possible without entering into a political process. The linkage between the political-security situation and the socio-economic reality in Israel in the minds of both the Israeli leadership and the Israeli public is a striking expression of Palestinian capability. In my opinion, the Palestinians will seek to maximize this leverage in the foreseeable time span, through direct or indirect means.