Strategic Assessment

Over the past four years, one of the most frequently asked questions about Iran is when will it be able to go nuclear. Sometimes the focus is on the so-called "point of no return" or "technological threshold," and sometimes the question is when it might actually be in a position to attain nuclear weapons, or mount them on long range surface-to-surface missiles. Speculation over this question has engendered any number of estimates as to how far advanced Iran's nuclear program really is. The urgency of the question keeps analysts busy trying to assess the answer, but from the range of answers provided, one cannot escape the distinct sense that there is no one authoritative assessment.