Strategic Assessment

According to the familiar public discourse, two extreme situations could evolve from the current Iranian nuclear predicament. The first and most problematic scenario that has been discussed extensively in recent years is an Iranian "breakout" toward nuclear weapons. The second and preferred scenario is a situation in which Iran faces heavy enough international pressure and tough enough international sanctions and decides to halt its nuclear project completely. Between these extremes there is a third option: Iran maintains a strategy that leaves it "decision making distance" from nuclear weapons. This article considers the prospects of the international community allowing Iran to achieve the status of a "threshold state" and analyzes the benefits and limitations of this middle road.