Strategic Assessment

In recent years, as the Arabs have sunk into deeper disarray, Iran’s regional stature has risen exponentially. The Iranians have demonstrated impressive determination in the pursuit of their hegemonic design, taking full advantage of the relative unity of the Shiite camp versus the extremely polarized world of the Sunnis. At the same time, Iran has had its shortcomings as well, with its Achilles’ heel in Syria, where its allies were fighting a seemingly losing battle. However, the nuclear agreement of July 2015 between the P5+1 and Iran has tipped the scales further in Iran’s favor in the balance of power with its Sunni rivals, as has the more recent involvement of Russia in Syria’s civil war, in coordination with Iran, on behalf of the pro-Iranian Assad regime.