Strategic Assessment

Any assessment of Hizbollah after the hostilities largely depends on the results of the war it is waging against Israel (or how they are portrayed), and these are still unknown. Despite this limitation, one can nevertheless point to some key objectives that Hizbollah’s leaders would like to achieve, at least in the short term. Although the political arena is the milieu that will command the most attention vis-à-vis the results of the fighting between Israel and Hizbollah, this article will attempt primarily to assess Hizbollah’s anticipated actions in the military-terrorist and cognitive-propaganda spheres. It is safe to predict that Hizbollah will want to achieve these goals regardless of the “objective” results of the fighting, playing down the death and destruction caused by its July 12 attack on Israel. Nasrallah, in true form, is expected to try and use his rhetorical talents to turn the pain of the blows suffered by his organization and Lebanon into an impressive, unprecedented military and fundamental achievement against the Israeli army.