Strategic Assessment

“Extended deterrence” threatens a nuclear-strategic response in case of a nuclear attack on the territory or troops of one’s allies. Extended deterrence today differs from the old East-West conflict concept by being much broader in its instruments, which makes it at least theoretically possible to tailor extended deterrence more precisely to regional needs. This essay aims to explore the possibilities of extended deterrence in the Middle East in light of an Iranian nuclear military capability. The author argues that familiar European and Asian deterrence models are not applicable to the region. Examining four other plausible models, the author contends that unilateral US declarations to Israel and Arab states comprise a weak form of extended deterrence against a nuclear Iran, but currently the only option that appears at all realistic.