Strategic Assessment

The deadlock in the crisis in Lebanon calls into question the possibility of establishing "a new order" in the country. The campaign in which Hizbollah – with the support of Syria and Iran – has packaged the objective of toppling the Siniora government is multidimensional. This is a battle over the status of the Shiites in Lebanon; over the status of Hizbollah as an armed organization; over the identity of Lebanon; and a critical phase in the campaign over the character of the region. Even if the sides reach a compromise that forestalls the country's deterioration, this is not the end of the line as far as Hizbollah is concerned, and Hizbollah's uncompromising drive to determine each of these battles does not bode well for Israel, the United States, or regional stability, and certainly not for the future of Lebanon.