Strategic Assessment

One of the main arguments raised against the unilateral disengagement from Gaza and northern Samaria focuses on its possible impact on the success of Israeli deterrence vis-à-vis the Palestinians. The more extreme version of this argument contends that any withdrawal from the territories critically weakens Israeli deterrence. A more moderate version holds that a withdrawal that is not accompanied by considerable Palestinian concessions is liable to weaken Israel’s deterrence. This approach corresponds to a general trend in Israeli popular strategic thinking about the meaning and role of deterrence in overall Israeli behavior vis-à-vis the Arab world in general and the Palestinians in particular. According to this school of thought, Israeli survival relies first and foremost on deterrence, and deterrence is determined by demonstrations of resolve, for example, by a refusal to make any concessions and especially not during an armed conflict. Consequently, the disengagement would critically weaken Israeli deterrence.