Strategic Assessment

Deterrence is a highly complex process that first and foremost includes the principle of threatening to use force as a preventive or punitive measure, with a view to preventing violence on the part of the enemy. However, the success of deterrence is contingent on a set of political, strategic and psychological factors. The greater the punitive capability towards the party to be deterred (i.e., military advantage), the more effective the deterrence. On the other hand, the greater the frustration of the deterred party with the political situation, the greater its willingness to challenge the status quo. In addition, there is the resolve factor, in other words, the willingness of the deterring party to use punitive measures. The latter dimension is elusive and has complex ramifications.