Strategic Assessment

This paper is a critique of a report published by the University of Utah, recommending the adoption of regime change as the preferred solution for the Iran nuclear issue, as compared with the diplomatic and military routes. According to this report, the number of casualties resulting from a military attack on Iran’s nuclear installations is so large as to be prohibitive from a humanitarian point of view. The faulty assumptions in the calculations include the possible bombing of the Bushehr reactor and the vulnerability to attack of the uranium compounds. At the same time, regime change does not appear to be imminent.